I found this long term forecast from the Climate Impacts Group. They've done a little weather projecting into the fall and winter (and even the spring). Here is an excerpt,
The seasonal outlooks through spring 2007 suggest... a continuation of warmer than average conditions throughout the region for the coming fall, winter, and spring seasons... pointing toward[s] a weak-to-moderate intensity El Niño event for the next few seasons... suggest[ing]... an anomalously dry fall and winter for much of the region.
Of course there were some serious disclaimers, but if you follow this prediction, the forecast doesn't look so hot for skiers.
In the meantime, it's warm and dry on the mountain. Camp Muir enjoyed a balmy low of 49 last night! It's at 59 degrees as of 9 AM.
Image by Rob Veal
If you haven't noticed, there have been few updates over the past 2 weeks... my apologies. This is largely due to the fact that I took a much needed climbing vacation. But I'm back, and with such fabulous weather on the horizon, I'm looking forward to more mountain related reports and gossip.To start things off, Rainier fans will appreciate this recent Camp Muir development. Now there is a remote weather station at 10,000 feet. Check it out! With just a click of the mouse, you can find the temps, winds and other basic weather data at Camp Muir (providing the equipment doesn't fail). Which is pretty cool, as climbers and skiers will appreciate the high altitude information when predicting (guessing) the conditions. Maybe someday, we'll even get a Camp Muir Cam!In other Mt Rainier news, we now know that climbing visitation is up from 2005. Not a huge leap, but up. We are already above 9,200 attempts for 2006, and I suspect that a few more will trickle throughout the fall and ealry winter. Also up in 2006 was the success rate, which is hovering around 62-63%. On the downside, however, is overall visitation to all of the National Parks (and in this case camping). The Denver Post covered the story in "Camping vacation falls out of favor." I find this topic interesting, and wonder about the trend.
Although Autumn officially begins on Sept. 22nd this year , it's starting to look and feel like "fall" now. The weather REMAINS outstanding (!), but change is in the air. Each day, the sun dips lower and lower into the sky, while the nighttime temps continue to drop.
Of course, there really isn't an official "Mt. Rainier Climbing Season," but if there were, it would start in late May and end around Labor Day weekend. Hmmm... Labor Day weekend just passed, and it's getting quiet around here... I'd share a route report about some cool line or ski descent, but it's September and most of our reports are focused on the DC and Emmons. As an example, a climber called today and asked about the Kautz Glacier. From Aug. 21st to now, only 15 people have attempted it (6 made it) and they had little to share. The DC and the Emmons, however, are in fine shape (if you like crossing crevasses and few other climbers).
Regarding the "climbing season"... I find it WONDERFUL that we had no (I mean NO) rescues all summer!!! A few were hurt, yes, but no one needed any sort of "rescue." Everyone was able to walk off on their own. More on this topic later... In other news... PAY ATTENTION MOUNTAIN GUIDES (or if you are interested in commercial guiding).
The NPS at Mt Rainier is OPENING professional guiding opportunities for competition to INDEPENDENT GUIDES (not concessions). After some research, you'll find that the scope of the introductory program IS quite limited, but the intent is for that program to expand. Moreover, other parks and agencies are watching Rainier, as independent guiding here could be precedent-setting within the industry, Park Service and other federal agencies.
As of today, roughly 8,600 climbers have attempted the summit this year, and the success rate hovers around 63%. By the way, it's no longer smoky up here.
After months of rather reliable weather, things finally cooled off. Paradise had a low of 34 degrees today, and Camp Muir dipped to a frigid 20 degrees... and it snowed some (only a light dusting) too. Suprisingly, more sunny and warm weather is forecast for Labor Day weekend. The main routes are holding up nicely. Climbers are reporting well established boot tracks on the DC and Emmons. You may have missed this recent press release... But if you're a mountain guide who would like to lead trips on Mount Rainier (but don't work for a concession) listen up! Mt Rainier National Park is accepting applications for "Single Trip Guides." As it stands now, the program is limited in scope, but for many, the opening on Mt. Rainier to such guiding represents more of the European model of small guided programs, with personally selected guides. There is information in the press release about who to contact and how the process works.
Visitors have been commenting on the haze and smoke in the air; climbers have noticed it too. The Seattle PI and Seattle Times commented on the wildfires in Washington State and in particular, the one near the NW corner of the park that is 150 acres. For climbers, the smoky haze at lower elevations will continue as the forecast calls for continued warm and dry weather throughout the next week. See the Mt. Rainier weather page for updated information and links. Having spent 8 summers at Camp Schurman, this story caught my eye. The Seattle PI admired the artwork of Clark Schurman this week. If you don't know, Clark is the namesake for Camp Schurman. In addition to his artwork, Clark was an avid Rainier mountaineer and wilderness trip leader back in the day. Dee Molenaar (local legend and author of Challenge of Rainier) met Clark in 1939.(!) Dee said of him, "He was a natural-born artist and he loved mountains." Things are looking good for the weekend. If you're at Camp Muir this Thursday, expect some helicopter action. It's time to prepare for September, i.e black barrels being flown downhill...Today's image of the Emmons is provided by Jonathan Hedstrom.
The Boston Globe picked up on something I've been noticing... That fewer people are visiting our national parks, despite a growing population in the U.S.As always, we do our best to update the current route and climbing conditions. Climbers on Mt Rainier are focusing on the Emmons, DC, Kautz and Tahoma Glacier these days. If you're hiking to Camp Muir, check out the latest Muir Snowfield conditions,and if you are headed to Schurman, watch for ice on the Inter Glacier.
A guided team took a significant crevasse fall near 13,600 feet on the Emmons last week. No one was "seriously injured." however, one climber reportedly fell 50 feet and broke a few teeth (ouch!) The team self rescued and descended the mountain under their own power. The crevasse opened up somewhat out of nowhere. One climber commented that "Of all the crevasse crossings on the route, this one seemed more solid than others."
And today, another climber struck his head while successfully dodging rockfall on the Disappointment Cleaver. He too was able to walk off the mountain with some help from other climbers. A few close calls, yes, but the fact remains that there have been no major rescues or injuries this year. Some would prefer that I "whisper" this fact, or "knock on wood" when stating it... but I'd prefer to remind everyone how well the season is going, and to thank those who have climbed for making this year safe "so far."
It reached 74 degrees at Paradise today. We've had close to 7,800 climbers attempt the summit this year; the success rate is hovering around 64%.
I found this long term forecast from the Climate Impacts Group. They've done a little weather projecting into the fall and winter (and even the spring). Here is an excerpt,